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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (49) PALES - 2010 Dec 31

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2010 NOV 19, 15:24 UT

Event Rank : 79

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Pales Update Map


On 2010 Dec 31 UT, the 150 km diameter asteroid (49) Pales will occult a 13.1 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a broad path of significant uncertainty across New Zealand, covering most of the centre of the North Island, north to Auckland, and across south-eastern Australia covering most of Victoria and south-east New South Wales, including Melbourne and Canberra. The one sigma limit includes all of the North Island of New Zealand, all of Victoria, New South Wales south of Sydney, and south-east South Australia, including Adelaide and S

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.3 mag to 11.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.9 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
   -179  0  0   -39 14 16   13 51  6    31   353   -23  -37 58 14  -40 33  5  -36 15 52  -42 28 49
   -180  0  0   -39  1 36   13 51 14    31   354   -23  -37 45 47  -40 20 11  -36  3 42  -42 15 32
    179  0  0   -38 49 25   13 51 21    32   355   -24  -37 33 49  -40  7 45  -35 51 59  -42  2 44

    178  0  0   -38 37 42   13 51 29    32   356   -24  -37 22 18  -39 55 49  -35 40 43  -41 50 26
    177  0  0   -38 26 28   13 51 37    32   357   -25  -37 11 15  -39 44 22  -35 29 54  -41 38 38
    176  0  0   -38 15 42   13 51 45    32   358   -25  -37  0 40  -39 33 24  -35 19 33  -41 27 20
    175  0  0   -38  5 25   13 51 53    32   359   -26  -36 50 34  -39 22 55  -35  9 40  -41 16 33
    174  0  0   -37 55 37   13 52  1    33     0   -26  -36 40 56  -39 12 56  -35  0 14  -41  6 16

    173  0  0   -37 46 19   13 52  8    33     1   -26  -36 31 46  -39  3 27  -34 51 17  -40 56 30
    172  0  0   -37 37 29   13 52 16    33     2   -27  -36 23  6  -38 54 28  -34 42 47  -40 47 15
    171  0  0   -37 29  9   13 52 24    33     4   -27  -36 14 54  -38 45 59  -34 34 46  -40 38 31
    170  0  0   -37 21 19   13 52 32    33     5   -28  -36  7 12  -38 38  0  -34 27 14  -40 30 18
    169  0  0   -37 13 58   13 52 40    33     6   -28  -35 59 58  -38 30 31  -34 20  9  -40 22 36

    168  0  0   -37  7  7   13 52 48    33     7   -28  -35 53 14  -38 23 33  -34 13 34  -40 15 26
    167  0  0   -37  0 46   13 52 56    33     8   -29  -35 47  0  -38 17  5  -34  7 27  -40  8 47
    166  0  0   -36 54 55   13 53  4    33     9   -29  -35 41 14  -38 11  7  -34  1 49  -40  2 39
    165  0  0   -36 49 35   13 53 12    33    10   -29  -35 35 59  -38  5 41  -33 56 40  -39 57  3
    164  0  0   -36 44 44   13 53 20    33    11   -29  -35 31 13  -38  0 45  -33 52  0  -39 51 59

    163  0  0   -36 40 23   13 53 28    33    12   -30  -35 26 56  -37 56 20  -33 47 48  -39 47 27
    162  0  0   -36 36 33   13 53 36    33    13   -30  -35 23 10  -37 52 26  -33 44  6  -39 43 26
    161  0  0   -36 33 14   13 53 44    33    14   -30  -35 19 53  -37 49  3  -33 40 54  -39 39 58
    160  0  0   -36 30 24   13 53 52    33    15   -30  -35 17  6  -37 46 10  -33 38 10  -39 37  1
    159  0  0   -36 28  5   13 54  0    32    17   -30  -35 14 50  -37 43 49  -33 35 56  -39 34 36

    158  0  0   -36 26 17   13 54  8    32    18   -30  -35 13  3  -37 41 59  -33 34 11  -39 32 44
    157  0  0   -36 24 59   13 54 16    32    19   -30  -35 11 46  -37 40 41  -33 32 55  -39 31 23
    156  0  0   -36 24 12   13 54 24    32    20   -31  -35 11  0  -37 39 53  -33 32  9  -39 30 35
    155  0  0   -36 23 56   13 54 31    31    21   -31  -35 10 43  -37 39 37  -33 31 53  -39 30 19
    154  0  0   -36 24 10   13 54 39    31    22   -31  -35 10 57  -37 39 52  -33 32  5  -39 30 35

    153  0  0   -36 24 55   13 54 46    31    23   -31  -35 11 41  -37 40 38  -33 32 48  -39 31 23
    152  0  0   -36 26 11   13 54 54    31    24   -31  -35 12 55  -37 41 56  -33 34  0  -39 32 44
    151  0  0   -36 27 58   13 55  1    30    25   -31  -35 14 39  -37 43 45  -33 35 41  -39 34 37
    150  0  0   -36 30 15   13 55  9    30    26   -31  -35 16 53  -37 46  5  -33 37 52  -39 37  2
    149  0  0   -36 33  3   13 55 16    29    27   -30  -35 19 38  -37 48 57  -33 40 32  -39 39 59

    148  0  0   -36 36 21   13 55 23    29    28   -30  -35 22 53  -37 52 20  -33 43 42  -39 43 29
    147  0  0   -36 40 11   13 55 30    29    29   -30  -35 26 38  -37 56 14  -33 47 22  -39 47 31
    146  0  0   -36 44 31   13 55 37    28    29   -30  -35 30 53  -38  0 39  -33 51 31  -39 52  5
    145  0  0   -36 49 21   13 55 44    28    30   -30  -35 35 38  -38  5 36  -33 56  9  -39 57 12
    144  0  0   -36 54 43   13 55 51    27    31   -30  -35 40 53  -38 11  4  -34  1 17  -40  2 50

    143  0  0   -37  0 35   13 55 58    27    32   -29  -35 46 39  -38 17  3  -34  6 54  -40  9  1
    142  0  0   -37  6 57   13 56  4    26    33   -29  -35 52 54  -38 23 33  -34 13  1  -40 15 44
    141  0  0   -37 13 50   13 56 11    26    34   -29  -35 59 39  -38 30 35  -34 19 36  -40 22 58
    140  0  0   -37 21 13   13 56 17    25    35   -29  -36  6 55  -38 38  7  -34 26 41  -40 30 45
    139  0  0   -37 29  7   13 56 23    25    36   -28  -36 14 40  -38 46 10  -34 34 16  -40 39  4

    138  0  0   -37 37 31   13 56 29    24    36   -28  -36 22 54  -38 54 45  -34 42 19  -40 47 55
    137  0  0   -37 46 25   13 56 35    23    37   -28  -36 31 39  -39  3 50  -34 50 51  -40 57 17
    136  0  0   -37 55 50   13 56 41    23    38   -27  -36 40 53  -39 13 25  -34 59 52  -41  7 11
    135  0  0   -38  5 44   13 56 47    22    39   -27  -36 50 36  -39 23 32  -35  9 22  -41 17 37
    134  0  0   -38 16  8   13 56 52    22    40   -27  -37  0 49  -39 34  8  -35 19 21  -41 28 34

    133  0  0   -38 27  2   13 56 58    21    41   -26  -37 11 31  -39 45 15  -35 29 48  -41 40  2
    132  0  0   -38 38 25   13 57  3    20    41   -26  -37 22 42  -39 56 53  -35 40 43  -41 52  2

Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs

Prediction of 2010 Nov 19.0

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