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Updated: 2010 OCT 03, 21:09 UT
Event Rank : 57
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 09 UT, the 44 km diameter asteroid (726) Joella will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a north-to-south path across WA from Port Hedland to Denmark in the south.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.8 mag to 14.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
116 29 12 -42 0 0 19 51 32 35 10 -10 116 13 3 116 45 19 115 37 11 117 21 5
116 35 37 -41 0 0 19 51 23 36 10 -11 116 19 44 116 51 30 115 44 25 117 26 42
116 41 44 -40 0 0 19 51 15 37 10 -11 116 26 5 116 57 22 115 51 18 117 32 3
116 47 33 -39 0 0 19 51 6 38 10 -12 116 32 7 117 2 57 115 57 50 117 37 8
116 53 5 -38 0 0 19 50 57 39 10 -12 116 37 52 117 8 17 116 4 4 117 41 59
116 58 21 -37 0 0 19 50 47 40 11 -13 116 43 20 117 13 20 116 9 59 117 46 36
117 3 21 -36 0 0 19 50 38 41 11 -13 116 48 33 117 18 9 116 15 38 117 50 59
117 8 8 -35 0 0 19 50 29 42 11 -14 116 53 30 117 22 45 116 21 0 117 55 10
117 12 40 -34 0 0 19 50 19 43 11 -14 116 58 13 117 27 7 116 26 6 117 59 9
117 17 0 -33 0 0 19 50 9 44 11 -15 117 2 43 117 31 17 116 30 58 118 2 56
117 21 7 -32 0 0 19 49 59 45 11 -15 117 6 59 117 35 14 116 35 36 118 6 33
117 25 2 -31 0 0 19 49 48 46 11 -16 117 11 4 117 39 0 116 40 0 118 9 59
117 28 45 -30 0 0 19 49 38 47 12 -16 117 14 56 117 42 35 116 44 11 118 13 14
117 32 18 -29 0 0 19 49 27 48 12 -17 117 18 36 117 45 59 116 48 10 118 16 20
117 35 39 -28 0 0 19 49 17 49 12 -17 117 22 5 117 49 13 116 51 56 118 19 17
117 38 50 -27 0 0 19 49 6 50 12 -18 117 25 24 117 52 16 116 55 31 118 22 4
117 41 51 -26 0 0 19 48 55 51 12 -18 117 28 32 117 55 10 116 58 55 118 24 43
117 44 42 -25 0 0 19 48 43 52 13 -19 117 31 29 117 57 55 117 2 7 118 27 13
117 47 24 -24 0 0 19 48 32 53 13 -19 117 34 17 118 0 30 117 5 9 118 29 34
117 49 56 -23 0 0 19 48 20 54 13 -20 117 36 55 118 2 56 117 8 0 118 31 47
117 52 19 -22 0 0 19 48 9 55 14 -20 117 39 24 118 5 14 117 10 41 118 33 53
117 54 33 -21 0 0 19 47 57 56 14 -21 117 41 43 118 7 23 117 13 12 118 35 50
117 56 38 -20 0 0 19 47 45 57 14 -21 117 43 53 118 9 23 117 15 33 118 37 39
117 58 35 -19 0 0 19 47 33 58 15 -22 117 45 54 118 11 15 117 17 45 118 39 20
118 0 23 -18 0 0 19 47 21 59 15 -22 117 47 47 118 12 58 117 19 47 118 40 54
118 2 2 -17 0 0 19 47 8 60 16 -23 117 49 30 118 14 33 117 21 39 118 42 20
118 3 33 -16 0 0 19 46 56 61 16 -23 117 51 5 118 16 0 117 23 22 118 43 39
118 4 55 -15 0 0 19 46 43 62 17 -24 117 52 30 118 17 19 117 24 56 118 44 50
118 6 9 -14 0 0 19 46 30 63 18 -24 117 53 48 118 18 30 117 26 21 118 45 53
118 7 14 -13 0 0 19 46 18 64 18 -25 117 54 56 118 19 32 117 27 36 118 46 49
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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