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Updated: 2009 SEP 22, 02:49 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Nov 04 UT, the 210 km diameter asteroid (41) Daphne will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a wide path beginning over Papua New Guinea passing just west of Wewak, and then into Queensland passing near Cooktown and Townsville. Then into central eastern parts of Queensland, and into north-east New South Wales near Moree and Narrabri, before crossing the coast between North Sydney and Coffs Harbour. Later the path crosses South Island New Zealand between Greymouth and Dunedin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 12.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 53.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
141 26 32 12 0 0 12 55 3 53 242 -70 140 17 53 142 36 8 139 53 22 143 1 25
141 21 55 11 0 0 12 55 30 53 243 -69 140 13 28 142 31 17 139 49 2 142 56 30
141 17 57 10 0 0 12 55 57 53 245 -69 140 9 42 142 27 8 139 45 20 142 52 17
141 14 41 9 0 0 12 56 25 54 246 -69 140 6 34 142 23 42 139 42 16 142 48 48
141 12 4 8 0 0 12 56 52 54 247 -69 140 4 5 142 20 59 139 39 49 142 46 1
141 10 9 7 0 0 12 57 20 54 248 -68 140 2 15 142 18 57 139 38 1 142 43 58
141 8 53 6 0 0 12 57 48 55 250 -68 140 1 3 142 17 39 139 36 51 142 42 38
141 8 19 5 0 0 12 58 16 55 251 -68 140 0 31 142 17 3 139 36 19 142 42 2
141 8 26 4 0 0 12 58 44 55 253 -67 140 0 38 142 17 10 139 36 26 142 42 9
141 9 14 3 0 0 12 59 12 55 254 -67 140 1 24 142 18 0 139 37 12 142 43 0
141 10 45 2 0 0 12 59 41 55 255 -66 140 2 51 142 19 35 139 38 38 142 44 36
141 12 58 1 0 0 13 0 9 55 257 -66 140 4 59 142 21 54 139 40 43 142 46 58
141 15 54 0 0 0 13 0 37 55 258 -65 140 7 48 142 24 58 139 43 30 142 50 5
141 19 35 - 1 0 0 13 1 6 55 260 -65 140 11 19 142 28 49 139 46 58 142 53 59
141 24 0 - 2 0 0 13 1 34 55 261 -64 140 15 33 142 33 26 139 51 8 142 58 41
141 29 11 - 3 0 0 13 2 3 55 263 -64 140 20 31 142 38 51 139 56 1 143 4 12
141 35 9 - 4 0 0 13 2 32 55 264 -63 140 26 13 142 45 5 140 1 38 143 10 32
141 41 55 - 5 0 0 13 3 0 55 266 -63 140 32 42 142 52 10 140 8 1 143 17 43
141 49 30 - 6 0 0 13 3 29 55 267 -62 140 39 58 143 0 6 140 15 10 143 25 47
141 57 56 - 7 0 0 13 3 58 55 268 -61 140 48 2 143 8 55 140 23 6 143 34 45
142 7 14 - 8 0 0 13 4 27 54 270 -61 140 56 56 143 18 39 140 31 52 143 44 38
142 17 26 - 9 0 0 13 4 56 54 271 -60 141 6 41 143 29 19 140 41 28 143 55 29
142 28 34 -10 0 0 13 5 24 54 272 -59 141 17 20 143 40 57 140 51 57 144 7 19
142 40 39 -11 0 0 13 5 53 53 274 -59 141 28 54 143 53 36 141 3 20 144 20 10
142 53 44 -12 0 0 13 6 22 53 275 -58 141 41 24 144 7 18 141 15 39 144 34 5
143 7 52 -13 0 0 13 6 51 53 276 -57 141 54 54 144 22 4 141 28 55 144 49 7
143 23 3 -14 0 0 13 7 19 52 277 -57 142 9 25 144 37 59 141 43 13 145 5 18
143 39 23 -15 0 0 13 7 48 52 278 -56 142 25 1 144 55 4 141 58 33 145 22 41
143 56 52 -16 0 0 13 8 17 51 279 -55 142 41 44 145 13 24 142 15 0 145 41 19
144 15 35 -17 0 0 13 8 45 50 280 -55 142 59 36 145 33 1 142 32 34 146 1 16
144 35 35 -18 0 0 13 9 14 50 281 -54 143 18 42 145 54 0 142 51 21 146 22 37
144 56 57 -19 0 0 13 9 42 49 282 -53 143 39 4 146 16 24 143 11 23 146 45 25
145 19 43 -20 0 0 13 10 11 49 283 -52 144 0 47 146 40 18 143 32 45 147 9 45
145 44 0 -21 0 0 13 10 39 48 284 -52 144 23 55 147 5 48 143 55 29 147 35 42
146 9 51 -22 0 0 13 11 7 47 285 -51 144 48 33 147 32 58 144 19 42 148 3 23
146 37 24 -23 0 0 13 11 35 46 285 -50 145 14 46 148 1 56 144 45 28 148 32 53
147 6 43 -24 0 0 13 12 4 46 286 -49 145 42 40 148 32 48 145 12 51 149 4 19
147 37 56 -25 0 0 13 12 31 45 286 -48 146 12 20 149 5 41 145 42 0 149 37 51
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
148 0 0 -25 40 15 13 12 50 44 287 -48 -28 10 55 -22 56 6 -29 2 28 -21 52 53
149 0 0 -27 21 47 13 13 37 43 287 -46 -29 42 46 -24 49 54 -30 31 17 -23 51 58
150 0 0 -28 53 23 13 14 19 41 288 -45 -31 6 20 -26 31 23 -31 52 19 -25 37 38
151 0 0 -30 16 42 13 14 57 40 288 -44 -32 22 53 -28 2 52 -33 6 41 -27 12 29
152 0 0 -31 32 57 13 15 32 38 288 -43 -33 33 19 -29 25 59 -34 15 14 -28 38 25
153 0 0 -32 43 5 13 16 3 37 288 -42 -34 38 24 -30 42 0 -35 18 40 -29 56 48
154 0 0 -33 47 51 13 16 33 36 288 -41 -35 38 44 -31 51 52 -36 17 33 -31 8 42
155 0 0 -34 47 52 13 16 59 35 288 -40 -36 34 51 -32 56 21 -37 12 22 -32 14 58
156 0 0 -35 43 39 13 17 24 34 288 -39 -37 27 8 -33 56 5 -38 3 30 -33 16 15
157 0 0 -36 35 37 13 17 47 32 288 -38 -38 15 58 -34 51 34 -38 51 17 -34 13 6
158 0 0 -37 24 7 13 18 9 31 287 -37 -39 1 39 -35 43 13 -39 36 1 -35 5 59
159 0 0 -38 9 28 13 18 29 30 287 -36 -39 44 27 -36 31 24 -40 17 57 -35 55 16
160 0 0 -38 51 56 13 18 48 29 286 -36 -40 24 35 -37 16 25 -40 57 18 -36 41 17
161 0 0 -39 31 43 13 19 5 28 286 -35 -41 2 15 -37 58 33 -41 34 14 -37 24 18
162 0 0 -40 9 3 13 19 22 27 285 -34 -41 37 37 -38 38 0 -42 8 57 -38 4 34
163 0 0 -40 44 4 13 19 37 26 285 -34 -42 10 52 -39 14 58 -42 41 36 -38 42 17
164 0 0 -41 16 58 13 19 52 26 284 -33 -42 42 7 -39 49 39 -43 12 17 -39 17 38
165 0 0 -41 47 51 13 20 5 25 284 -32 -43 11 29 -40 22 10 -43 41 8 -39 50 47
166 0 0 -42 16 51 13 20 18 24 283 -32 -43 39 5 -40 52 41 -44 8 15 -40 21 52
167 0 0 -42 44 5 13 20 31 23 283 -31 -44 5 2 -41 21 18 -44 33 45 -40 51 2
168 0 0 -43 9 38 13 20 42 22 282 -30 -44 29 23 -41 48 9 -44 57 42 -41 18 21
169 0 0 -43 33 36 13 20 53 21 281 -30 -44 52 14 -42 13 18 -45 20 10 -41 43 58
170 0 0 -43 56 3 13 21 3 20 281 -29 -45 13 40 -42 36 52 -45 41 15 -42 7 56
171 0 0 -44 17 4 13 21 13 20 280 -29 -45 33 44 -42 58 54 -46 0 59 -42 30 21
172 0 0 -44 36 43 13 21 22 19 280 -28 -45 52 30 -43 19 29 -46 19 26 -42 51 18
173 0 0 -44 55 3 13 21 31 18 279 -28 -46 10 0 -43 38 41 -46 36 40 -43 10 49
174 0 0 -45 12 6 13 21 39 17 278 -27 -46 26 19 -43 56 33 -46 52 43 -43 29 0
175 0 0 -45 27 57 13 21 47 17 278 -27 -46 41 28 -44 13 9 -47 7 37 -43 45 52
176 0 0 -45 42 38 13 21 54 16 277 -26 -46 55 30 -44 28 31 -47 21 26 -44 1 30
177 0 0 -45 56 11 13 22 1 15 276 -26 -47 8 27 -44 42 41 -47 34 11 -44 15 55
178 0 0 -46 8 38 13 22 7 14 275 -25 -47 20 21 -44 55 43 -47 45 53 -44 29 10
179 0 0 -46 20 1 13 22 13 14 275 -25 -47 31 14 -45 7 38 -47 56 36 -44 41 17
Uncertainty in time = +/- 13 secs
Prediction of 2009 Sep 17.0
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