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Updated: 2009 OCT 15, 17:33 UT
Event Rank : 47
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Oct 23 UT, the 64 km diameter asteroid (3012) Minsk will occult a 8.9 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across central Western Australia, passing near Esperance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.5 mag to 16.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
122 26 35 -37 0 0 19 25 48 7 6 -17 122 48 42 122 4 28 123 49 22 121 3 57
122 35 52 -36 0 0 19 25 49 8 6 -18 122 57 42 122 14 2 123 57 36 121 14 17
122 45 9 -35 0 0 19 25 51 9 6 -18 123 6 43 122 23 35 124 5 53 121 24 34
122 54 26 -34 0 0 19 25 53 10 5 -18 123 15 45 122 33 7 124 14 14 121 34 48
123 3 43 -33 0 0 19 25 55 11 5 -19 123 24 48 122 42 39 124 22 37 121 44 59
123 13 1 -32 0 0 19 25 58 12 5 -19 123 33 52 122 52 11 124 31 4 121 55 8
123 22 20 -31 0 0 19 26 1 13 5 -19 123 42 58 123 1 43 124 39 34 122 5 16
123 31 40 -30 0 0 19 26 3 14 5 -20 123 52 6 123 11 15 124 48 8 122 15 22
123 41 1 -29 0 0 19 26 7 15 5 -20 124 1 15 123 20 48 124 56 45 122 25 28
123 50 24 -28 0 0 19 26 10 16 5 -20 124 10 27 123 30 22 125 5 26 122 35 32
123 59 49 -27 0 0 19 26 13 17 5 -21 124 19 41 123 39 58 125 14 12 122 45 37
124 9 16 -26 0 0 19 26 17 18 5 -21 124 28 58 123 49 35 125 23 1 122 55 41
124 18 46 -25 0 0 19 26 21 19 5 -21 124 38 18 123 59 14 125 31 56 123 5 46
124 28 18 -24 0 0 19 26 25 20 4 -21 124 47 42 124 8 55 125 40 54 123 15 52
124 37 53 -23 0 0 19 26 30 21 4 -22 124 57 8 124 18 38 125 49 58 123 25 58
124 47 31 -22 0 0 19 26 34 22 4 -22 125 6 39 124 28 25 125 59 7 123 36 7
124 57 13 -21 0 0 19 26 39 23 4 -22 125 16 13 124 38 14 126 8 21 123 46 17
125 6 59 -20 0 0 19 26 44 24 4 -22 125 25 52 124 48 7 126 17 41 123 56 29
125 16 49 -19 0 0 19 26 49 25 4 -23 125 35 35 124 58 4 126 27 6 124 6 43
125 26 44 -18 0 0 19 26 54 26 4 -23 125 45 24 125 8 4 126 36 38 124 17 1
125 36 43 -17 0 0 19 27 0 27 4 -23 125 55 17 125 18 9 126 46 16 124 27 21
125 46 47 -16 0 0 19 27 6 28 4 -23 126 5 16 125 28 19 126 56 0 124 37 45
125 56 57 -15 0 0 19 27 12 29 3 -23 126 15 21 125 38 33 127 5 52 124 48 14
126 7 13 -14 0 0 19 27 18 30 3 -24 126 25 33 125 48 54 127 15 51 124 58 46
126 17 34 -13 0 0 19 27 24 31 3 -24 126 35 50 125 59 19 127 25 58 125 9 23
126 28 3 -12 0 0 19 27 31 32 3 -24 126 46 15 126 9 51 127 36 12 125 20 5
126 38 38 -11 0 0 19 27 37 33 3 -24 126 56 47 126 20 30 127 46 36 125 30 53
126 49 21 -10 0 0 19 27 44 34 3 -24 127 7 27 126 31 16 127 57 7 125 41 47
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2009 Oct 16.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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