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Updated: 2008 SEP 17, 01:30 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Sep 24 UT, the 182 km diameter asteroid (130) Elektra will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a broad path across the South Island of New Zealand, including nearly the wholoe island in the one sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.4 mag to 10.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 18.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
167 58 2 -33 46 55 16 29 1 23 258 -26 170 33 43 -33 24 35 165 34 10 -34 4 1 172 10 57 -33 8 36 164 15 7 -34 12 0
167 52 37 -34 25 53 16 29 8 23 259 -26 170 28 27 -34 3 49 165 28 27 -34 42 47 172 5 37 -33 48 2 164 9 10 -34 50 39
167 48 24 -35 4 39 16 29 15 23 259 -26 170 24 30 -34 42 47 165 23 48 -35 21 23 172 1 44 -34 27 10 164 4 13 -35 29 11
167 45 21 -35 43 13 16 29 22 23 259 -26 170 21 53 -35 21 31 165 20 13 -35 59 50 171 59 16 -35 6 1 164 0 17 -36 7 33
167 43 30 -36 21 35 16 29 29 23 260 -25 170 20 37 -36 0 0 165 17 43 -36 38 7 171 58 16 -35 44 35 163 57 23 -36 45 48
167 42 52 -36 59 47 16 29 36 23 260 -25 170 20 41 -36 38 15 165 16 18 -37 16 16 171 58 41 -36 22 53 163 55 31 -37 23 56
167 43 27 -37 37 48 16 29 43 24 260 -25 170 22 7 -37 16 17 165 16 0 -37 54 17 172 0 34 -37 0 56 163 54 42 -38 1 56
167 45 17 -38 15 39 16 29 50 24 260 -25 170 24 55 -37 54 5 165 16 51 -38 32 9 172 3 56 -37 38 43 163 54 58 -38 39 50
167 48 22 -38 53 20 16 29 57 24 261 -24 170 29 8 -38 31 41 165 18 50 -39 9 55 172 8 47 -38 16 15 163 56 20 -39 17 36
167 52 46 -39 30 51 16 30 4 24 261 -24 170 34 46 -39 9 4 165 22 0 -39 47 32 172 15 10 -38 53 33 163 58 48 -39 55 17
167 58 29 -40 8 13 16 30 12 24 261 -24 170 41 53 -39 46 15 165 26 23 -40 25 2 172 23 7 -39 30 35 164 2 27 -40 32 51
168 5 34 -40 45 25 16 30 19 24 261 -23 170 50 30 -40 23 12 165 32 1 -41 2 26 172 32 41 -40 7 23 164 7 16 -41 10 20
168 14 4 -41 22 27 16 30 26 24 261 -23 171 0 41 -40 59 57 165 38 57 -41 39 41 172 43 54 -40 43 55 164 13 19 -41 47 42
168 24 1 -41 59 19 16 30 33 24 261 -23 171 12 28 -41 36 29 165 47 12 -42 16 50 172 56 50 -41 20 12 164 20 37 -42 24 58
168 35 29 -42 36 2 16 30 40 23 262 -22 171 25 56 -42 12 47 165 56 49 -42 53 51 173 11 33 -41 56 13 164 29 14 -43 2 9
168 48 31 -43 12 34 16 30 47 23 262 -22 171 41 7 -42 48 51 166 7 53 -43 30 45 173 28 6 -42 31 57 164 39 13 -43 39 13
169 3 11 -43 48 55 16 30 54 23 262 -21 171 58 7 -43 24 41 166 20 26 -44 7 31 173 46 35 -43 7 24 164 50 37 -44 16 11
169 19 33 -44 25 5 16 31 1 23 262 -21 172 16 59 -44 0 15 166 34 32 -44 44 9 174 7 4 -43 42 32 165 3 30 -44 53 2
169 37 42 -45 1 3 16 31 8 23 262 -20 172 37 50 -44 35 33 166 50 16 -45 20 38 174 29 40 -44 17 21 165 17 55 -45 29 46
169 57 43 -45 36 48 16 31 15 23 262 -20 173 0 46 -45 10 33 167 7 42 -45 56 59 174 54 29 -44 51 49 165 33 58 -46 6 24
170 19 43 -46 12 20 16 31 22 23 262 -20 173 25 52 -45 45 15 167 26 56 -46 33 9 175 21 38 -45 25 54 165 51 42 -46 42 53
170 43 46 -46 47 37 16 31 29 22 262 -19 173 53 16 -46 19 36 167 48 2 -47 9 10 175 51 14 -45 59 34 166 11 13 -47 19 14
171 10 0 -47 22 39 16 31 36 22 262 -19 174 23 6 -46 53 35 168 11 7 -47 44 58 176 23 28 -46 32 48 166 32 37 -47 55 25
171 38 32 -47 57 23 16 31 44 22 262 -18 174 55 31 -47 27 10 168 36 17 -48 20 35 176 58 28 -47 5 33 166 56 1 -48 31 27
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Sep 17.0]
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