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Updated: 2007 OCT 15, 13:57 UT
Event Rank : 8
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Nov 15 UT, the 12 km diameter asteroid (9423) Abt will occult a 6.0 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a narrow but uncertain path across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland, passing near Melbourne, Cobar, Bourke, Charleville, Emerald and ending near Mackay. Note this event involves a 6th magnitude star.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 10.7 mag to 16.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds.
This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 42 39 -44 7 58 12 44 31 50 305 -24 141 37 16 -44 6 27 141 48 3 -44 9 28 140 7 19 -43 40 35 143 21 2 -44 34 46
141 58 47 -42 59 25 12 44 49 50 303 -25 141 53 30 -42 57 56 142 4 4 -43 0 54 140 25 15 -42 32 27 143 35 13 -43 25 50
142 15 30 -41 51 27 12 45 6 50 302 -26 142 10 18 -41 49 59 142 20 41 -41 52 55 140 43 39 -41 24 52 143 50 7 -42 17 30
142 32 46 -40 44 2 12 45 24 51 300 -27 142 27 40 -40 42 35 142 37 52 -40 45 29 141 2 28 -40 17 48 144 5 44 -41 9 43
142 50 35 -39 37 6 12 45 42 51 299 -29 142 45 35 -39 35 41 142 55 37 -39 38 32 141 21 44 -39 11 14 144 22 0 -40 2 26
143 8 57 -38 30 38 12 46 0 51 297 -30 143 4 1 -38 29 13 143 13 54 -38 32 2 141 41 26 -38 5 5 144 38 56 -38 55 38
143 27 51 -37 24 34 12 46 18 52 295 -31 143 22 59 -37 23 11 143 32 43 -37 25 57 142 1 35 -36 59 21 144 56 31 -37 49 15
143 47 17 -36 18 53 12 46 35 52 294 -32 143 42 29 -36 17 31 143 52 5 -36 20 15 142 22 10 -35 53 59 145 14 43 -36 43 15
144 7 15 -35 13 32 12 46 53 52 292 -33 144 2 31 -35 12 11 144 12 0 -35 14 54 142 43 12 -34 48 57 145 33 33 -35 37 36
144 27 45 -34 8 30 12 47 11 52 290 -34 144 23 4 -34 7 10 144 32 27 -34 9 51 143 4 41 -33 44 13 145 53 1 -34 32 16
144 48 49 -33 3 45 12 47 29 52 289 -35 144 44 11 -33 2 25 144 53 27 -33 5 4 143 26 39 -32 39 45 146 13 6 -33 27 14
145 10 26 -31 59 14 12 47 46 52 287 -36 145 5 51 -31 57 55 145 15 1 -32 0 32 143 49 7 -31 35 30 146 33 49 -32 22 26
145 32 37 -30 54 56 12 48 4 52 285 -38 145 28 4 -30 53 38 145 37 9 -30 56 13 144 12 5 -30 31 29 146 55 11 -31 17 51
145 55 23 -29 50 48 12 48 22 52 284 -39 145 50 53 -29 49 31 145 59 53 -29 52 5 144 35 34 -29 27 37 147 17 12 -30 13 28
146 18 46 -28 46 50 12 48 40 52 282 -40 146 14 18 -28 45 34 146 23 14 -28 48 5 144 59 36 -28 23 54 147 39 54 -29 9 13
146 42 46 -27 42 59 12 48 58 51 280 -41 146 38 20 -27 41 44 146 47 12 -27 44 13 145 24 12 -27 20 19 148 3 17 -28 5 7
147 7 25 -26 39 13 12 49 15 51 279 -42 147 3 2 -26 37 59 147 11 49 -26 40 27 145 49 23 -26 16 48 148 27 23 -27 1 6
147 32 45 -25 35 31 12 49 33 51 277 -43 147 28 23 -25 34 18 147 37 8 -25 36 44 146 15 12 -25 13 21 148 52 13 -25 57 9
147 58 48 -24 31 51 12 49 51 51 276 -44 147 54 27 -24 30 39 148 3 9 -24 33 3 146 41 40 -24 9 56 149 17 49 -24 53 14
148 25 35 -23 28 11 12 50 9 50 274 -46 148 21 15 -23 27 0 148 29 54 -23 29 23 147 8 49 -23 6 31 149 44 12 -23 49 19
148 53 8 -22 24 30 12 50 27 50 273 -47 148 48 50 -22 23 19 148 57 27 -22 25 40 147 36 42 -22 3 4 150 11 27 -22 45 22
149 21 31 -21 20 45 12 50 44 49 271 -48 149 17 13 -21 19 35 149 25 49 -21 21 55 148 5 20 -20 59 34 150 39 33 -21 41 22
149 50 45 -20 16 54 12 51 2 49 270 -49 149 46 29 -20 15 45 149 55 2 -20 18 3 148 34 47 -19 55 58 151 8 36 -20 37 17
150 20 55 -19 12 57 12 51 20 48 268 -50 150 16 39 -19 11 48 150 25 11 -19 14 5 149 5 6 -18 52 15 151 38 36 -19 33 4
150 52 2 -18 8 50 12 51 38 48 267 -52 150 47 46 -18 7 42 150 56 19 -18 9 57 149 36 19 -17 48 23 152 9 39 -18 28 42
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