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Updated: 2007 JAN 11, 22:10 UT
Event Rank : 10
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Feb 09 UT, the 19 km diameter asteroid (7037) Davidlean will occult a 10.0 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a narrow and highly uncertain path beginning in northern Queensland, and leaving south of Brisbane. The path then passes over the extreme south western tip of the South Island New Zealand, and directly over Stewart Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.4 mag to 16.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 17 18 -14 13 34 14 14 22 9 116 -59 137 40 42 -14 20 48 136 52 54 -14 5 49 141 51 54 -15 25 24 ... .. .. .. .. ..
140 28 12 -16 32 58 14 14 29 13 115 -57 140 45 42 -16 37 0 140 10 20 -16 28 45 144 10 46 -17 16 17 135 20 53 -15 4 2
142 50 9 -18 26 7 14 14 37 15 114 -56 143 5 8 -18 28 45 142 34 58 -18 23 23 146 6 44 -18 54 44 138 49 24 -17 33 29
144 47 26 -20 5 54 14 14 44 18 113 -55 145 0 59 -20 7 42 144 33 46 -20 4 2 147 48 0 -20 25 6 141 17 21 -19 30 31
146 29 12 -21 37 12 14 14 52 20 113 -54 146 41 48 -21 38 26 146 16 30 -21 35 55 149 18 50 -21 49 42 143 17 25 -21 12 31
148 0 5 -23 2 31 14 15 0 22 112 -52 148 12 0 -23 3 19 147 48 4 -23 1 39 150 41 47 -23 9 54 145 0 34 -22 45 18
149 22 48 -24 23 18 14 15 7 23 111 -51 149 34 14 -24 23 47 149 11 18 -24 22 47 151 58 34 -24 26 37 146 32 4 -24 11 44
150 39 9 -25 40 33 14 15 15 25 110 -50 150 50 12 -25 40 45 150 28 2 -25 40 18 153 10 19 -25 40 30 147 54 58 -25 33 25
151 50 20 -26 54 54 14 15 22 26 109 -48 152 1 6 -26 54 54 151 39 32 -26 54 53 154 17 55 -26 52 2 149 11 10 -26 51 25
152 57 16 -28 6 53 14 15 30 28 108 -47 153 7 48 -28 6 41 152 46 41 -28 7 3 155 22 1 -28 1 33 150 21 59 -28 6 27
154 0 36 -29 16 50 14 15 37 29 107 -46 154 10 57 -29 16 28 153 50 13 -29 17 10 156 23 7 -29 9 21 151 28 22 -29 19 2
155 0 53 -30 25 3 14 15 45 30 106 -45 155 11 5 -30 24 32 154 50 38 -30 25 32 157 21 37 -30 15 40 152 31 1 -30 29 33
155 58 29 -31 31 47 14 15 52 31 105 -44 156 8 35 -31 31 8 155 48 21 -31 32 24 158 17 53 -31 20 40 153 30 29 -31 38 19
156 53 47 -32 37 12 14 16 0 32 104 -42 157 3 48 -32 36 27 156 43 44 -32 37 57 159 12 9 -32 24 31 154 27 12 -32 45 35
157 47 2 -33 41 29 14 16 7 33 103 -41 157 57 0 -33 40 37 157 37 3 -33 42 20 160 4 40 -33 27 21 155 21 30 -33 51 31
158 38 29 -34 44 45 14 16 15 34 102 -40 158 48 24 -34 43 47 158 28 32 -34 45 42 160 55 38 -34 29 16 156 13 41 -34 56 19
159 28 19 -35 47 7 14 16 22 35 101 -39 159 38 13 -35 46 3 159 18 24 -35 48 10 161 45 12 -35 30 23 157 3 59 -36 0 5
160 16 43 -36 48 41 14 16 30 36 100 -38 160 26 36 -36 47 32 160 6 49 -36 49 49 162 33 32 -36 30 46 157 52 35 -37 2 58
161 3 50 -37 49 33 14 16 37 37 99 -37 161 13 43 -37 48 19 160 53 55 -37 50 46 163 20 46 -37 30 30 158 39 40 -38 5 4
161 49 47 -38 49 46 14 16 45 38 97 -35 161 59 41 -38 48 27 161 39 50 -38 51 4 164 7 1 -38 29 40 159 25 24 -39 6 27
162 34 40 -39 49 26 14 16 53 38 96 -34 162 44 37 -39 48 2 162 24 42 -39 50 48 164 52 22 -39 28 18 160 9 53 -40 7 13
163 18 38 -40 48 35 14 17 0 39 95 -33 163 28 36 -40 47 7 163 8 37 -40 50 1 165 36 55 -40 26 27 160 53 14 -41 7 26
164 1 44 -41 47 17 14 17 8 40 94 -32 164 11 46 -41 45 45 163 51 40 -41 48 48 166 20 47 -41 24 12 161 35 34 -42 7 9
164 44 4 -42 45 35 14 17 15 40 92 -31 164 54 10 -42 44 0 164 33 56 -42 47 10 167 4 0 -42 21 35 162 16 58 -43 6 26
165 25 42 -43 43 33 14 17 23 41 91 -30 165 35 53 -43 41 53 165 15 30 -43 45 11 167 46 41 -43 18 38 162 57 31 -44 5 21
166 6 44 -44 41 12 14 17 30 41 90 -29 166 16 59 -44 39 28 165 56 26 -44 42 54 168 28 53 -44 15 23 163 37 17 -45 3 55
166 47 12 -45 38 35 14 17 38 42 88 -28 166 57 33 -45 36 47 166 36 49 -45 40 21 169 10 40 -45 11 54 164 16 19 -46 2 12
167 27 11 -46 35 44 14 17 45 42 87 -27 167 37 38 -46 33 53 167 16 41 -46 37 34 169 52 6 -46 8 11 164 54 43 -47 0 15
168 6 44 -47 32 42 14 17 53 43 86 -26 168 17 18 -47 30 47 167 56 7 -47 34 35 170 33 14 -47 4 17 165 32 30 -47 58 5
168 45 54 -48 29 30 14 18 0 43 84 -25 168 56 36 -48 27 32 168 35 9 -48 31 27 171 14 9 -48 0 14 166 9 45 -48 55 46
169 24 44 -49 26 11 14 18 8 43 83 -24 169 35 35 -49 24 9 169 13 51 -49 28 12 171 54 54 -48 56 4 166 46 29 -49 53 18
170 3 19 -50 22 47 14 18 15 44 81 -22 170 14 19 -50 20 41 169 52 16 -50 24 51 172 35 31 -49 51 48 167 22 47 -50 50 45
170 41 40 -51 19 18 14 18 23 44 80 -21 170 52 50 -51 17 9 170 30 28 -51 21 26 173 16 5 -50 47 28 167 58 39 -51 48 8
171 19 52 -52 15 48 14 18 30 44 78 -20 171 31 12 -52 13 35 171 8 29 -52 18 0 173 56 40 -51 43 6 168 34 9 -52 45 29
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