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Updated: 2006 NOV 21, 03:57 UT
Event Rank : 19
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Dec 01 UT, the 10 km diameter asteroid (525) Adelaide will occult a 9.5 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across Western Australia, from near Exmouth to Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.3 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
133 1 5 -41 0 0 15 50 53 22 54 -26 132 51 47 133 10 21 131 44 4 134 15 15
132 36 48 -40 0 0 15 50 33 23 55 -27 132 27 30 132 46 3 131 19 50 133 50 51
132 9 39 -39 0 0 15 50 13 23 56 -28 132 0 21 132 18 55 130 52 34 133 23 46
131 39 37 -38 0 0 15 49 53 23 57 -29 131 30 16 131 48 54 130 22 12 132 53 58
131 6 35 -37 0 0 15 49 32 23 58 -30 130 57 11 131 15 56 129 48 38 132 21 21
130 30 27 -36 0 0 15 49 11 23 59 -31 130 20 58 130 39 53 129 11 43 131 45 50
129 51 4 -35 0 0 15 48 49 23 60 -33 129 41 28 130 0 36 128 31 18 131 7 17
129 8 13 -34 0 0 15 48 27 23 60 -34 128 58 28 129 17 55 127 47 7 130 25 33
128 21 40 -33 0 0 15 48 4 23 61 -35 128 11 44 128 31 33 126 58 53 129 40 23
127 31 6 -32 0 0 15 47 40 23 63 -36 127 20 55 127 41 12 126 6 11 128 51 33
126 36 4 -31 0 0 15 47 16 22 64 -37 126 25 36 126 46 28 125 8 31 127 58 41
125 36 5 -30 0 0 15 46 51 22 65 -38 125 25 14 125 46 50 124 5 13 127 1 22
124 30 24 -29 0 0 15 46 26 22 66 -39 124 19 5 124 41 36 122 55 20 125 59 2
123 18 4 -28 0 0 15 46 0 21 67 -40 123 6 11 123 29 51 121 37 36 124 50 56
121 57 47 -27 0 0 15 45 33 20 68 -41 121 45 7 122 10 19 120 10 8 123 36 5
120 27 35 -26 0 0 15 45 5 19 69 -42 120 13 52 120 41 7 118 30 2 122 13 5
118 44 25 -25 0 0 15 44 36 18 71 -43 118 29 13 118 59 22 116 32 13 120 39 53
116 42 59 -24 0 0 15 44 6 16 72 -44 116 25 29 117 0 7 114 6 32 118 53 15
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
115 0 0 -23 17 19 15 43 43 15 73 -45 -23 24 53 -23 9 47 -24 20 18 -22 17 9
114 0 0 -22 55 41 15 43 30 14 74 -45 -23 3 9 -22 48 16 -23 57 39 -21 56 24
113 0 0 -22 36 20 15 43 19 13 74 -45 -22 43 41 -22 29 1 -23 37 24 -21 37 50
112 0 0 -22 19 10 15 43 8 12 75 -45 -22 26 26 -22 11 57 -23 19 27 -21 21 23
111 0 0 -22 4 9 15 42 59 12 75 -45 -22 11 20 -21 57 0 -23 3 44 -21 6 58
110 0 0 -21 51 12 15 42 50 11 76 -45 -21 58 19 -21 44 7 -22 50 11 -20 54 33
109 0 0 -21 40 17 15 42 41 10 76 -45 -21 47 20 -21 33 16 -22 38 45 -20 44 6
108 0 0 -21 31 20 15 42 34 9 77 -45 -21 38 20 -21 24 22 -22 29 21 -20 35 33
107 0 0 -21 24 20 15 42 27 8 77 -45 -21 31 17 -21 17 24 -22 21 59 -20 28 52
106 0 0 -21 19 14 15 42 21 7 77 -44 -21 26 9 -21 12 20 -22 16 35 -20 24 2
105 0 0 -21 16 1 15 42 16 6 78 -44 -21 22 54 -21 9 9 -22 13 7 -20 21 2
104 0 0 -21 14 39 15 42 12 5 78 -44 -21 21 31 -21 7 48 -22 11 35 .. .. ..
103 0 0 -21 15 7 15 42 8 4 79 -43 -21 21 58 -21 8 17 -22 11 57 .. .. ..
102 0 0 -21 17 24 15 42 5 3 79 -43 -21 24 15 -21 10 34 -22 14 11 .. .. ..
101 0 0 -21 21 29 15 42 3 2 79 -42 -21 28 21 -21 14 40 -22 18 17 .. .. ..
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