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Updated: 2006 OCT 27, 05:56 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Nov 03 UT, the 39 km diameter asteroid (714) Ulula will occult a 9.2 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path crossing Papua New Guinea near Daru. The path then moves into Queensland crossing Cairns and Townsville, then into north east New South Wales passing close to Narrabri before leaving the continent directly across Sydney.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.1 mag to 13.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
153 34 43 -40 0 0 18 7 28 37 356 -5 153 19 51 153 49 34 152 55 46 154 13 38
153 12 7 -39 0 0 18 7 20 38 357 -6 152 57 27 153 26 46 152 33 42 153 50 29
152 49 48 -38 0 0 18 7 11 39 357 -7 152 35 20 153 4 15 152 11 54 153 27 39
152 27 44 -37 0 0 18 7 2 40 358 -7 152 13 28 152 42 0 151 50 20 153 5 6
152 5 54 -36 0 0 18 6 53 41 358 -8 151 51 48 152 19 59 151 28 58 152 42 47
151 44 16 -35 0 0 18 6 44 42 359 -9 151 30 21 151 58 11 151 7 47 152 20 43
151 22 50 -34 0 0 18 6 34 43 359 -10 151 9 4 151 36 35 150 46 46 151 58 52
151 1 33 -33 0 0 18 6 25 44 360 -10 150 47 56 151 15 9 150 25 53 151 37 11
150 40 25 -32 0 0 18 6 15 45 0 -11 150 26 57 150 53 53 150 5 7 151 15 40
150 19 24 -31 0 0 18 6 5 46 1 -12 150 6 4 150 32 44 149 44 28 150 54 18
149 58 30 -30 0 0 18 5 55 47 1 -12 149 45 18 150 11 42 149 23 54 150 33 4
149 37 41 -29 0 0 18 5 44 48 2 -13 149 24 36 149 50 46 149 3 24 150 11 56
149 16 56 -28 0 0 18 5 34 49 2 -14 149 3 58 149 29 54 148 42 56 149 50 53
148 56 14 -27 0 0 18 5 23 50 3 -15 148 43 22 149 9 5 148 22 31 149 29 54
148 35 35 -26 0 0 18 5 12 51 4 -15 148 22 49 148 48 20 148 2 8 149 8 59
148 14 56 -25 0 0 18 5 1 52 4 -16 148 2 16 148 27 36 147 41 44 148 48 5
147 54 18 -24 0 0 18 4 50 53 5 -17 147 41 43 148 6 52 147 21 19 148 27 13
147 33 39 -23 0 0 18 4 39 54 6 -18 147 21 9 147 46 8 147 0 53 148 6 21
147 12 58 -22 0 0 18 4 27 55 7 -18 147 0 33 147 25 22 146 40 25 147 45 28
146 52 14 -21 0 0 18 4 16 56 8 -19 146 39 53 147 4 35 146 19 52 147 24 33
146 31 27 -20 0 0 18 4 4 56 8 -20 146 19 10 146 43 44 145 59 16 147 3 36
146 10 36 -19 0 0 18 3 52 57 9 -21 145 58 23 146 22 49 145 38 34 146 42 35
145 49 39 -18 0 0 18 3 40 58 10 -22 145 37 29 146 1 48 145 17 45 146 21 29
145 28 36 -17 0 0 18 3 28 59 11 -22 145 16 29 145 40 42 144 56 50 146 0 18
145 7 25 -16 0 0 18 3 15 60 13 -23 144 55 21 145 19 29 144 35 47 145 39 0
144 46 7 -15 0 0 18 3 3 61 14 -24 144 34 5 144 58 8 144 14 34 145 17 35
144 24 39 -14 0 0 18 2 50 62 15 -25 144 12 39 144 36 38 143 53 12 144 56 1
144 3 1 -13 0 0 18 2 38 63 16 -25 143 51 3 144 14 58 143 31 39 144 34 19
143 41 12 -12 0 0 18 2 25 64 18 -26 143 29 15 143 53 7 143 9 53 144 12 25
143 19 10 -11 0 0 18 2 12 64 19 -27 143 7 15 143 31 5 142 47 56 143 50 21
142 56 56 -10 0 0 18 1 59 65 21 -28 142 45 2 143 8 50 142 25 44 143 28 4
142 34 28 - 9 0 0 18 1 46 66 23 -28 142 22 34 142 46 20 142 3 17 143 5 34
142 11 44 - 8 0 0 18 1 32 67 25 -29 141 59 51 142 23 36 141 40 34 142 42 49
141 48 44 - 7 0 0 18 1 19 67 27 -30 141 36 51 142 0 36 141 17 35 142 19 49
141 25 27 - 6 0 0 18 1 6 68 29 -31 141 13 34 141 37 19 140 54 17 141 56 31
141 1 51 - 5 0 0 18 0 52 69 31 -32 140 49 57 141 13 43 140 30 39 141 32 57
140 37 55 - 4 0 0 18 0 38 69 33 -32 140 26 0 140 49 48 140 6 41 141 9 3
140 13 38 - 3 0 0 18 0 25 70 36 -33 140 1 42 140 25 32 139 42 22 140 44 48
139 48 59 - 2 0 0 18 0 11 70 39 -34 139 37 2 140 0 54 139 17 39 140 20 13
139 23 56 - 1 0 0 17 59 57 71 42 -35 139 11 57 139 35 53 138 52 31 139 55 14
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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