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Updated: 2006 OCT 10, 18:46 UT
Event Rank : 80
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Oct 18 UT, the 45 km diameter asteroid (759) Vinifera will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across Western Australia, beginning near Esperance and running across central Australia, leaving near Townsville in Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.0 mag to 14.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
117 40 9 -37 6 29 14 23 2 32 269 -39 117 14 39 -37 1 13 118 5 59 -37 11 38 116 40 27 -36 53 55 118 41 38 -37 18 30
118 41 55 -36 14 8 14 23 7 31 267 -40 118 16 10 -36 9 6 119 8 0 -36 19 3 117 41 41 -36 2 7 119 44 1 -36 25 34
119 45 31 -35 21 5 14 23 12 30 266 -41 119 19 29 -35 16 19 120 11 54 -35 25 45 118 44 37 -35 9 40 120 48 22 -35 31 54
120 51 13 -34 27 15 14 23 17 29 265 -42 120 24 49 -34 22 46 121 17 59 -34 31 38 119 49 30 -34 16 28 121 54 58 -34 37 23
121 59 19 -33 32 31 14 23 22 28 264 -43 121 32 29 -33 28 19 122 26 32 -33 36 35 120 56 36 -33 22 25 123 4 11 -33 41 55
123 10 10 -32 36 44 14 23 27 27 263 -45 122 42 49 -32 32 52 123 37 56 -32 40 28 122 6 15 -32 27 24 124 16 24 -32 45 18
124 24 15 -31 39 45 14 23 32 26 262 -46 123 56 15 -31 36 15 124 52 42 -31 43 5 123 18 52 -31 31 15 125 32 8 -31 47 23
125 42 7 -30 41 19 14 23 37 24 261 -47 125 13 20 -30 38 14 126 11 24 -30 44 14 124 34 57 -30 33 47 126 52 3 -30 47 54
127 4 31 -29 41 11 14 23 43 23 260 -49 126 34 45 -29 38 36 127 34 50 -29 43 35 125 55 7 -29 34 46 128 17 1 -29 46 31
128 32 26 -28 38 59 14 23 48 22 259 -50 128 1 26 -28 36 58 129 4 4 -28 40 46 127 20 14 -28 33 53 129 48 12 -28 42 49
130 7 13 -27 34 13 14 23 53 20 258 -52 129 34 37 -27 32 54 130 40 35 -27 35 14 128 51 26 -27 30 43 131 27 18 -27 36 10
131 50 54 -26 26 7 14 23 58 18 257 -53 131 16 9 -26 25 43 132 26 36 -26 26 11 130 30 18 -26 24 40 133 16 50 -26 25 38
133 46 34 -25 13 35 14 24 3 16 256 -55 133 8 48 -25 14 24 134 25 37 -25 12 17 132 19 17 -25 14 51 135 21 3 -25 9 42
135 59 42 -23 54 36 14 24 8 14 255 -56 135 17 18 -23 57 13 136 44 2 -23 51 16 134 22 19 -23 59 50 137 47 56 -23 45 25
138 41 33 -22 25 5 14 24 13 11 253 -58 137 50 56 -22 30 49 139 35 46 -22 18 3 136 46 43 -22 36 56 140 57 1 -22 5 45
142 25 22 -20 33 4 14 24 18 7 252 -60 141 14 1 -20 46 24 143 49 27 -20 15 8 139 49 31 -21 0 1 146 30 46 -19 33 51
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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