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Updated: 2006 MAR 28, 01:47 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Mar 29 UT, the 170 km diameter asteroid (96) Aegle will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a wide path across southern South Australia, western Victoria and Tasmania. Adelaide, Geelong, Ballarat and Hobart lie within the predicted path. A path shift up to Melbourne is possible. Note that the event will occur at a low altitude, particularly in Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.2 mag to 13.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
148 27 32 -43 0 0 9 53 24 4 324 -21 146 30 21 ... .. .. 145 35 50 ... .. ..
147 19 48 -42 0 0 9 53 24 5 325 -20 145 23 28 149 14 25 144 29 19 ... .. ..
146 11 44 -41 0 0 9 53 23 6 325 -20 144 16 8 148 5 33 143 22 17 ... .. ..
145 3 15 -40 0 0 9 53 22 7 326 -19 143 8 14 146 56 24 142 14 39 147 47 54
143 54 16 -39 0 0 9 53 21 9 327 -18 141 59 43 145 46 53 141 6 18 146 38 6
142 44 41 -38 0 0 9 53 20 10 328 -18 140 50 28 144 36 53 139 57 11 145 27 53
141 34 25 -37 0 0 9 53 18 11 328 -17 139 40 23 143 26 20 138 47 9 144 17 10
140 23 21 -36 0 0 9 53 16 13 329 -16 138 29 23 142 15 7 137 36 8 143 5 50
139 11 24 -35 0 0 9 53 14 14 330 -15 137 17 20 141 3 8 136 24 0 141 53 49
137 58 26 -34 0 0 9 53 12 16 331 -14 136 4 8 139 50 17 135 10 39 140 40 59
136 44 20 -33 0 0 9 53 9 17 332 -13 134 49 38 138 36 27 133 55 55 139 27 14
135 29 0 -32 0 0 9 53 7 18 332 -12 133 33 43 137 21 31 132 39 41 138 12 27
134 12 15 -31 0 0 9 53 4 20 333 -11 132 16 14 136 5 21 131 21 47 136 56 30
132 53 57 -30 0 0 9 53 1 21 334 -10 130 56 59 134 47 50 130 2 2 135 39 16
131 33 57 -29 0 0 9 52 57 23 335 -9 129 35 48 133 28 46 128 40 13 134 20 35
130 12 2 -28 0 0 9 52 53 24 336 -8 128 12 28 132 8 1 127 16 9 133 0 18
128 47 59 -27 0 0 9 52 49 25 337 -7 126 46 45 130 45 22 125 49 31 131 38 13
127 21 34 -26 0 0 9 52 45 27 338 -5 125 18 20 129 20 38 124 20 4 130 14 9
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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