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Updated: 2005 JUL 26, 03:58 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2005 Aug 30 UT, the 108 km diameter asteroid (739) Mandeville will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers in eastern NSW, eastern Victoria and Tasmania, including around Sydney and Canberra.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.9 mag to 13.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 171 3 55 -16 21 11
... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 170 6 0 -17 34 38 ... .. .. .. .. .. 167 38 23 -18 6 52
170 11 42 -18 31 31 17 13 53 7 252 -23 ... .. .. .. .. .. 167 9 50 -19 10 7 ... .. .. .. .. .. 165 18 34 -19 29 19
167 22 10 -20 4 54 17 14 0 10 253 -26 170 25 38 -19 25 52 165 1 2 -20 28 50 174 30 54 -18 19 14 163 26 20 -20 41 59
165 16 42 -21 22 42 17 14 7 12 254 -28 167 40 15 -20 58 3 163 15 14 -21 39 25 170 0 12 -20 28 49 161 50 25 -21 48 53
163 33 12 -22 32 43 17 14 14 14 255 -29 165 37 9 -22 15 16 161 43 45 -22 44 57 167 29 7 -21 56 10 160 25 36 -22 51 52
162 3 33 -23 37 52 17 14 20 15 255 -30 163 55 27 -23 24 57 160 22 19 -23 46 56 165 32 56 -23 11 11 159 9 0 -23 51 58
160 43 40 -24 39 36 17 14 27 17 256 -32 162 27 18 -24 29 52 159 8 26 -24 46 18 163 55 42 -24 19 31 157 58 47 -24 49 50
159 31 10 -25 38 45 17 14 34 18 257 -33 161 8 44 -25 31 25 158 0 30 -25 43 35 162 30 51 -25 23 31 156 53 42 -25 45 55
158 24 30 -26 35 55 17 14 41 19 257 -33 159 57 28 -26 30 28 156 57 25 -26 39 13 161 14 56 -26 24 24 155 52 55 -26 40 34
157 22 36 -27 31 27 17 14 48 20 258 -34 158 51 57 -27 27 33 155 58 24 -27 33 30 160 5 53 -27 22 57 154 55 45 -27 33 59
156 24 43 -28 25 39 17 14 55 21 259 -35 157 51 9 -28 23 2 155 2 51 -28 26 37 159 2 18 -28 19 38 154 1 44 -28 26 22
155 30 15 -29 18 45 17 15 1 22 260 -35 156 54 21 -29 17 13 154 10 18 -29 18 46 158 3 15 -29 14 49 153 10 27 -29 17 52
154 38 47 -30 10 53 17 15 8 23 260 -36 156 0 56 -30 10 18 153 20 24 -30 10 4 157 8 2 -30 8 46 152 21 36 -30 8 36
153 49 56 -31 2 11 17 15 15 24 261 -36 155 10 30 -31 2 27 152 32 52 -31 0 39 156 16 7 -31 1 40 151 34 56 -30 58 40
153 3 26 -31 52 48 17 15 22 24 262 -37 154 22 42 -31 53 49 151 47 27 -31 50 36 155 27 6 -31 53 40 150 50 14 -31 48 9
152 19 3 -32 42 48 17 15 29 25 262 -37 153 37 15 -32 44 28 151 3 57 -32 40 0 154 40 39 -32 44 54 150 7 20 -32 37 8
151 36 35 -33 32 15 17 15 35 26 263 -38 152 53 55 -33 34 32 150 22 13 -33 28 55 153 56 30 -33 35 29 149 26 4 -33 25 39
150 55 54 -34 21 15 17 15 42 26 264 -38 152 12 31 -34 24 4 149 42 6 -34 17 25 153 14 27 -34 25 30 148 46 20 -34 13 47
150 16 50 -35 9 49 17 15 49 27 265 -38 151 32 55 -35 13 9 149 3 29 -35 5 32 152 34 19 -35 15 0 148 8 0 -35 1 34
149 39 18 -35 58 3 17 15 56 28 265 -38 150 54 57 -36 1 50 148 26 17 -35 53 19 151 55 57 -36 4 5 147 31 0 -35 49 3
149 3 11 -36 45 57 17 16 3 28 266 -38 150 18 32 -36 50 10 147 50 23 -36 40 50 151 19 15 -36 52 47 146 55 15 -36 36 16
148 28 25 -37 33 35 17 16 10 29 267 -39 149 43 35 -37 38 12 147 15 44 -37 28 5 150 44 5 -37 41 8 146 20 40 -37 23 15
147 54 54 -38 20 58 17 16 16 29 268 -39 149 9 59 -38 25 58 146 42 16 -38 15 7 150 10 23 -38 29 13 145 47 11 -38 10 2
147 22 37 -39 8 9 17 16 23 29 268 -39 148 37 42 -39 13 30 146 9 56 -39 1 59 149 38 4 -39 17 3 145 14 47 -38 56 38
146 51 29 -39 55 10 17 16 30 30 269 -39 148 6 40 -40 0 51 145 38 40 -39 48 41 149 7 5 -40 4 40 144 43 24 -39 43 6
146 21 28 -40 42 2 17 16 37 30 270 -39 147 36 50 -40 48 2 145 8 26 -40 35 15 148 37 23 -40 52 6 144 13 0 -40 29 27
145 52 32 -41 28 47 17 16 44 31 271 -39 147 8 10 -41 35 5 144 39 13 -41 21 43 148 8 54 -41 39 23 143 43 33 -41 15 43
145 24 39 -42 15 27 17 16 50 31 271 -39 146 40 38 -42 22 1 144 10 59 -42 8 7 147 41 38 -42 26 33 143 15 2 -42 1 53
144 57 48 -43 2 2 17 16 57 31 272 -39 146 14 13 -43 8 52 143 43 42 -42 54 26 147 15 33 -43 13 37 142 47 25 -42 48 1
144 31 58 -43 48 35 17 17 4 31 273 -38 145 48 53 -43 55 40 143 17 22 -43 40 44 146 50 37 -44 0 37 142 20 41 -43 34 8
144 7 8 -44 35 6 17 17 11 32 274 -38 145 24 39 -44 42 25 142 51 57 -44 27 1 146 26 50 -44 47 34 141 54 50 -44 20 13
143 43 18 -45 21 36 17 17 18 32 274 -38 145 1 28 -45 29 10 142 27 28 -45 13 17 146 4 11 -45 34 29 141 29 51 -45 6 19
143 20 27 -46 8 7 17 17 25 32 275 -38 144 39 23 -46 15 54 142 3 54 -45 59 35 145 42 42 -46 21 24 141 5 43 -45 52 27
142 58 37 -46 54 41 17 17 31 32 276 -38 144 18 23 -47 2 40 141 41 15 -46 45 56 145 22 21 -47 8 20 140 42 28 -46 38 38
142 37 47 -47 41 17 17 17 38 32 277 -37 143 58 28 -47 49 28 141 19 32 -47 32 20 145 3 11 -47 55 18 140 20 5 -47 24 52
142 17 59 -48 27 57 17 17 45 32 277 -37 143 39 40 -48 36 20 140 58 45 -48 18 49 144 45 12 -48 42 18 139 58 35 -48 11 11
141 59 14 -49 14 43 17 17 52 32 278 -37 143 22 1 -49 23 17 140 38 57 -49 5 23 144 28 27 -49 29 23 139 37 58 -48 57 36
141 41 33 -50 1 35 17 17 59 32 279 -37 143 5 32 -50 10 20 140 20 7 -49 52 4 144 12 56 -50 16 34 139 18 17 -49 44 9
141 24 58 -50 48 34 17 18 5 33 279 -36 142 50 16 -50 57 29 140 2 17 -50 38 53 143 58 44 -51 3 50 138 59 31 -50 30 49
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