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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Sep 26 UT, the 171 km diameter asteroid (747) Winchester will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.7 mag to 11.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 46.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
... .. .. 53 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 154 38 23
... .. .. 52 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. 155 4 36 ... .. .. 155 41 51
154 33 53 51 0 0 7 26 38 6 145 0 ... .. .. 156 5 3 ... .. .. 156 41 3
155 33 21 50 0 0 7 26 43 7 146 -1 ... .. .. 157 1 33 ... .. .. 157 36 25
156 28 58 49 0 0 7 26 47 8 146 -1 155 1 59 157 54 28 ... .. .. 158 28 17
157 21 6 48 0 0 7 26 53 10 147 -2 155 56 44 158 44 7 155 22 35 159 16 57
158 10 3 47 0 0 7 26 59 11 148 -2 156 48 5 159 30 45 156 14 56 160 2 43
158 56 4 46 0 0 7 27 6 12 148 -3 157 36 20 160 14 39 157 4 6 160 45 47
159 39 23 45 0 0 7 27 14 13 149 -4 158 21 42 160 56 0 157 50 19 161 26 23
160 20 14 44 0 0 7 27 22 14 149 -4 159 4 27 161 35 1 158 33 51 162 4 41
160 58 46 43 0 0 7 27 31 15 150 -5 159 44 46 162 11 51 159 14 53 162 40 51
161 35 10 42 0 0 7 27 40 16 150 -5 160 22 49 162 46 40 159 53 37 163 15 3
162 9 35 41 0 0 7 27 50 17 151 -6 160 58 47 163 19 36 160 30 13 163 47 24
162 42 9 40 0 0 7 28 0 18 151 -6 161 32 47 163 50 46 161 4 48 164 18 1
163 12 58 39 0 0 7 28 11 20 151 -7 162 4 57 164 20 17 161 37 32 164 47 1
163 42 10 38 0 0 7 28 23 21 152 -7 162 35 25 164 48 15 162 8 31 165 14 31
164 9 50 37 0 0 7 28 35 22 152 -8 163 4 17 165 14 46 162 37 52 165 40 35
164 36 4 36 0 0 7 28 48 23 152 -8 163 31 38 165 39 55 163 5 40 166 5 18
165 0 57 35 0 0 7 29 1 24 152 -9 163 57 33 166 3 46 163 32 2 166 28 44
165 24 32 34 0 0 7 29 15 25 152 -9 164 22 8 166 26 23 163 57 1 166 50 59
165 46 55 33 0 0 7 29 29 26 153 -9 164 45 27 166 47 51 164 20 43 167 12 6
166 8 9 32 0 0 7 29 44 27 153 -10 165 7 34 167 8 14 164 43 12 167 32 8
166 28 17 31 0 0 7 29 59 28 153 -10 165 28 33 167 27 33 165 4 31 167 51 8
166 47 23 30 0 0 7 30 14 29 153 -11 165 48 26 167 45 53 165 24 43 168 9 10
167 5 30 29 0 0 7 30 31 30 153 -11 166 7 18 168 3 17 165 43 53 168 26 16
167 22 41 28 0 0 7 30 47 31 153 -11 166 25 11 168 19 46 166 2 3 168 42 30
167 38 58 27 0 0 7 31 4 32 153 -12 166 42 8 168 35 24 166 19 17 168 57 52
167 54 24 26 0 0 7 31 22 33 153 -12 166 58 11 168 50 13 166 35 35 169 12 27
168 9 0 25 0 0 7 31 40 34 153 -13 167 13 23 169 4 15 166 51 2 169 26 14
168 22 50 24 0 0 7 31 58 35 153 -13 167 27 46 169 17 31 167 5 38 169 39 18
168 35 54 23 0 0 7 32 17 36 153 -13 167 41 22 169 30 4 167 19 27 169 51 39
168 48 15 22 0 0 7 32 36 37 153 -14 167 54 13 169 41 56 167 32 31 170 3 19
168 59 54 21 0 0 7 32 56 38 153 -14 168 6 21 169 53 8 167 44 50 170 14 20
169 10 54 20 0 0 7 33 16 39 153 -14 168 17 47 170 3 41 167 56 27 170 24 43
169 21 15 19 0 0 7 33 37 40 153 -15 168 28 33 170 13 38 168 7 23 170 34 30
169 30 59 18 0 0 7 33 58 41 153 -15 168 38 41 170 22 59 168 17 40 170 43 42
169 40 7 17 0 0 7 34 19 42 153 -15 168 48 11 170 31 45 168 27 20 170 52 20
169 48 41 16 0 0 7 34 41 43 152 -15 168 57 6 170 39 59 168 36 23 171 0 26
169 56 42 15 0 0 7 35 3 44 152 -16 169 5 26 170 47 41 168 44 51 171 8 0
170 4 11 14 0 0 7 35 25 45 152 -16 169 13 13 170 54 52 168 52 45 171 15 4
170 11 8 13 0 0 7 35 48 46 152 -16 169 20 27 171 1 33 169 0 6 171 21 38
170 17 35 12 0 0 7 36 11 47 152 -16 169 27 10 171 7 45 169 6 55 171 27 44
170 23 34 11 0 0 7 36 34 48 151 -17 169 33 23 171 13 29 169 13 14 171 33 23
170 29 4 10 0 0 7 36 58 49 151 -17 169 39 6 171 18 46 169 19 2 171 38 35
170 34 6 9 0 0 7 37 22 50 151 -17 169 44 21 171 23 37 169 24 22 171 43 21
170 38 42 8 0 0 7 37 47 51 150 -17 169 49 7 171 28 2 169 29 13 171 47 42
170 42 52 7 0 0 7 38 12 52 150 -17 169 53 27 171 32 2 169 33 37 171 51 38
170 46 37 6 0 0 7 38 37 53 149 -18 169 57 21 171 35 38 169 37 35 171 55 11
170 49 57 5 0 0 7 39 2 54 149 -18 170 0 49 171 38 51 169 41 6 171 58 21
170 52 53 4 0 0 7 39 27 55 148 -18 170 3 52 171 41 41 169 44 12 172 1 8
170 55 27 3 0 0 7 39 53 56 148 -18 170 6 31 171 44 8 169 46 53 172 3 33
170 57 37 2 0 0 7 40 20 57 147 -18 170 8 46 171 46 14 169 49 10 172 5 37
170 59 25 1 0 0 7 40 46 57 146 -18 170 10 38 171 47 58 169 51 4 172 7 20
171 0 52 0 0 0 7 41 13 58 146 -18 170 12 8 171 49 22 169 52 34 172 8 43
171 1 57 - 1 0 0 7 41 40 59 145 -19 170 13 15 171 50 26 169 53 42 172 9 46
171 2 41 - 2 0 0 7 42 7 60 144 -19 170 14 0 171 51 10 169 54 28 172 10 29
171 3 6 - 3 0 0 7 42 34 61 143 -19 170 14 24 171 51 34 169 54 52 172 10 54
171 3 10 - 4 0 0 7 43 2 62 142 -19 170 14 27 171 51 39 169 54 55 172 11 0
171 2 55 - 5 0 0 7 43 29 63 141 -19 170 14 10 171 51 26 169 54 36 172 10 47
171 2 20 - 6 0 0 7 43 57 64 140 -19 170 13 32 171 50 55 169 53 57 172 10 17
171 1 26 - 7 0 0 7 44 26 64 139 -19 170 12 35 171 50 5 169 52 58 172 9 29
171 0 14 - 8 0 0 7 44 54 65 138 -19 170 11 17 171 48 58 169 51 39 172 8 24
170 58 43 - 9 0 0 7 45 22 66 137 -19 170 9 41 171 47 33 169 50 0 172 7 2
170 56 55 -10 0 0 7 45 51 67 135 -19 170 7 45 171 45 51 169 48 2 172 5 23
170 54 48 -11 0 0 7 46 20 68 133 -19 170 5 30 171 43 53 169 45 44 172 3 27
170 52 24 -12 0 0 7 46 49 68 132 -19 170 2 57 171 41 37 169 43 7 172 1 15
170 49 42 -13 0 0 7 47 18 69 130 -19 170 0 5 171 39 5 169 40 11 171 58 47
170 46 42 -14 0 0 7 47 47 70 128 -19 169 56 54 171 36 17 169 36 56 171 56 3
170 43 25 -15 0 0 7 48 17 70 126 -19 169 53 25 171 33 12 169 33 22 171 53 3
170 39 51 -16 0 0 7 48 46 71 124 -19 169 49 38 171 29 51 169 29 29 171 49 48
170 36 0 -17 0 0 7 49 16 71 121 -19 169 45 32 171 26 14 169 25 18 171 46 17
170 31 52 -18 0 0 7 49 46 72 119 -19 169 41 9 171 22 21 169 20 48 171 42 30
170 27 26 -19 0 0 7 50 15 72 116 -19 169 36 26 171 18 13 169 15 59 171 38 28
170 22 43 -20 0 0 7 50 45 73 113 -18 169 31 26 171 13 48 169 10 51 171 34 10
170 17 44 -21 0 0 7 51 15 73 110 -18 169 26 7 171 9 7 169 5 24 171 29 37
170 12 26 -22 0 0 7 51 45 74 107 -18 169 20 29 171 4 10 168 59 39 171 24 48
170 6 52 -23 0 0 7 52 15 74 104 -18 169 14 33 170 58 57 168 53 34 171 19 43
170 1 0 -24 0 0 7 52 45 74 100 -18 169 8 18 170 53 28 168 47 9 171 14 23
169 54 50 -25 0 0 7 53 15 74 97 -18 169 1 44 170 47 42 168 40 25 171 8 48
169 48 22 -26 0 0 7 53 45 74 93 -18 168 54 50 170 41 40 168 33 21 171 2 56
169 41 36 -27 0 0 7 54 16 74 90 -17 168 47 36 170 35 22 168 25 56 170 56 48
169 34 32 -28 0 0 7 54 46 74 86 -17 168 40 3 170 28 46 168 18 11 170 50 23
169 27 8 -29 0 0 7 55 16 74 82 -17 168 32 9 170 21 53 168 10 4 170 43 42
169 19 25 -30 0 0 7 55 46 74 79 -17 168 23 53 170 14 42 168 1 36 170 36 44
169 11 23 -31 0 0 7 56 16 74 75 -17 168 15 17 170 7 13 167 52 46 170 29 29
169 3 0 -32 0 0 7 56 46 74 72 -16 168 6 18 169 59 26 167 43 32 170 21 56
168 54 16 -33 0 0 7 57 16 73 69 -16 167 56 56 169 51 20 167 33 55 170 14 5
168 45 11 -34 0 0 7 57 46 73 66 -16 167 47 11 169 42 54 167 23 54 170 5 55
168 35 43 -35 0 0 7 58 16 72 63 -16 167 37 1 169 34 8 167 13 28 169 57 26
168 25 53 -36 0 0 7 58 46 72 60 -15 167 26 26 169 25 1 167 2 35 169 48 36
168 15 38 -37 0 0 7 59 15 71 58 -15 167 15 25 169 15 33 166 51 15 169 39 26
168 4 59 -38 0 0 7 59 45 71 56 -15 167 3 56 169 5 42 166 39 26 169 29 55
167 53 53 -39 0 0 8 0 15 70 53 -15 166 51 59 168 55 28 166 27 8 169 20 1
167 42 21 -40 0 0 8 0 44 69 51 -14 166 39 32 168 44 50 166 14 18 169 9 44
167 30 19 -41 0 0 8 1 13 69 49 -14 166 26 33 168 33 45 166 0 56 168 59 2
167 17 48 -42 0 0 8 1 43 68 48 -14 166 13 1 168 22 14 165 47 0 168 47 55
167 4 45 -43 0 0 8 2 12 67 46 -13 165 58 54 168 10 15 165 32 27 168 36 21
166 51 9 -44 0 0 8 2 41 67 45 -13 165 44 10 167 57 45 165 17 16 168 24 18
166 36 57 -45 0 0 8 3 9 66 43 -13 165 28 47 167 44 44 165 1 24 168 11 45
166 22 8 -46 0 0 8 3 38 65 42 -12 165 12 42 167 31 9 164 44 48 167 58 40
166 6 39 -47 0 0 8 4 7 64 41 -12 164 55 53 167 16 59 164 27 27 167 45 0
165 50 27 -48 0 0 8 4 35 63 40 -12 164 38 16 167 2 11 164 9 16 167 30 45
165 33 30 -49 0 0 8 5 3 63 39 -11 164 19 49 166 46 42 163 50 13 167 15 51
165 15 43 -50 0 0 8 5 31 62 38 -11 164 0 28 166 30 29 163 30 13 167 0 15
164 57 4 -51 0 0 8 5 59 61 37 -11 163 40 8 166 13 29 163 9 11 166 43 55
164 37 28 -52 0 0 8 6 26 60 36 -10 163 18 44 165 55 39 162 47 5 166 26 47
164 16 51 -53 0 0 8 6 53 59 36 -10 162 56 13 165 36 54 162 23 46 166 8 47
163 55 7 -54 0 0 8 7 21 58 35 -9 162 32 27 165 17 11 161 59 11 165 49 50
163 32 11 -55 0 0 8 7 47 57 35 -9 162 7 20 164 56 22 161 33 12 165 29 52
163 7 57 -56 0 0 8 8 14 56 34 -8 161 40 46 164 34 24 161 5 41 165 8 48
162 42 15 -57 0 0 8 8 40 55 34 -8 161 12 35 164 11 9 160 36 29 164 46 31
162 14 59 -58 0 0 8 9 7 54 34 -8 160 42 38 163 46 31 160 5 27 164 22 54
161 45 59 -59 0 0 8 9 32 53 34 -7 160 10 45 163 20 19 159 32 23 163 57 49
161 15 3 -60 0 0 8 9 58 53 33 -7 159 36 42 162 52 26 158 57 4 163 31 8
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
160 0 0 -62 10 39 8 10 53 50 33 -6 -59 19 22 -64 59 46 -58 10 9 -66 6 54
159 0 0 -63 42 3 8 11 31 49 33 -5 -61 0 26 -66 21 47 -59 55 10 -67 25 14
158 0 0 -65 3 46 8 12 4 48 34 -4 -62 30 45 -67 35 7 -61 29 0 -68 35 15
157 0 0 -66 17 11 8 12 33 46 34 -4 -63 51 53 -68 40 59 -62 53 17 -69 38 9
156 0 0 -67 23 27 8 13 0 45 35 -3 -65 5 6 -69 40 27 -64 9 20 -70 34 55
155 0 0 -68 23 31 8 13 23 44 35 -3 -66 11 28 -70 34 21 -65 18 16 -71 26 23
154 0 0 -69 18 12 8 13 44 43 36 -2 -67 11 52 -71 23 25 -66 20 59 -72 13 13
153 0 0 -70 8 8 8 14 3 42 36 -2 -68 7 2 -72 8 14 -67 18 16 -72 56 0
152 0 0 -70 53 55 8 14 21 42 37 -1 -68 57 34 -72 49 18 -68 10 45 -73 35 13
151 0 0 -71 36 0 8 14 36 41 38 -1 -69 44 2 -73 27 4 -68 58 59 -74 11 17
150 0 0 -72 14 48 8 14 51 40 39 0 -70 26 53 -74 1 54 -69 43 28 -74 44 32
149 0 0 -72 50 40 8 15 4 40 39 0 -71 6 29 .. .. .. -70 24 34 .. .. ..
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