This prediction update has been computed by Steve Kerr of Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho 2 position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This updated path lies around 0.3" to the southeast of that given by Goffin and around 2 minutes later. The path now crosses the Northland area of the North Island of New Zealand with Whangarei near the southern edge at 12:29 UT. Auckland would lie near the edge of the error margin of this calculation at the same appulse time.

It is unlikely that an occultation will be observed from Tasmania.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: September 5 : 12:29 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 9.91
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 4.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.1
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0954

• Approximate width [km]: 80
• Uncertainty [km]: 100 (95% confidence)
• Map: See below
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 1139-00221-1 = PPM 140900
• Constellation: Pegasus
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 21h 58m 53.601s; +10^o 40' 12.04"
• Position source: TYC 2
• V mag [mag]: 9.91
• B-V [mag]: +1.14
• Remarks:
• The target star is western Pegasus. It lies around 1.2 degrees southwest of 21 Pegasi (magnitude = 5.8) and 3.7 degrees east of Enif - epsilon Pegasi (magnitude = 2.4).

• Number, name: (983) Gunila
• Approx. diameter [km]: 77
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 12
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2001 07 15 - 2001 08 28

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 September 5, 12:27.6 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 14.32
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 3.98
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 4.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.1
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 28.34
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 44, 94%
• Update computed by: Steve Kerr, Rockhampton, Queensland Australia. (Win Occult V1.4).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.