This prediction update has been computed by Stephen Kerr based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The TAC position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This updated path lies around 0.7" to the north-east of that predicted by Goffin and around 3 minutes later. The path passes across the southern parts of the North Island of New Zealand around the Masterton/Palmerston North area at very low altitude (only 10° at 14:39 UT). The path then crosses the Tasman Sea and makes landfall at Newcastle at 14:40:35 UT (also the closest approach time for Sydney). Running to the north-west, the path crosses central-northern New South Wales and south-west Queensland before passing through the Northern Territory and the far northern Kimberley.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: February 7, 2001 @ 14:40 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 10.65
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.5
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 14.7
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0211

• Approximate width [km]: 120
• Map: See below
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TAC +02°03584 = GSC 150 1528
• Constellation: Monoceros
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 6h 32m 42.459s; +2^o 10' 53.89"
• Position source: TAC-10
• V mag [mag]: 10.65
• Remarks:
• The target star is in eastern Monoceros. It lies 3.2 degrees south-east of epsilon Monocerotis (magnitude = 4.4). The magnitude 6.2 star SAO 113940 lies 1 degree to the north-west of the target star. This is a very crowded star field and identification may be difficult considering the bright moonlight.

• Number, name: (57) Mnemosyne
• Approx. diameter [km]: 116
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 14
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2000 10 16 - 2001 01 07

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 February 7, 14:51.4 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 11.79
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 4.12
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 1.5
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 14.7
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 18.39
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 38, 99%
• Update computed by: Stephen Kerr (Win OCCULT 1.4).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.