This prediction update has been computed by Stephen Kerr based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The Tycho-2 position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This updated path lies close to that predicted by OCCULT. It lies around 6 path widths to the east of the path given by Goffin and around 75 seconds later. The updated path crosses the southern Western Australian coastline near the South Australian border (13:40:45 UT) and runs to the north-west passing very close to the west of Karratha (13:43:45 UT).

Observers in Hobart, Melbourne and Adelaide all lie within 0.5" of the updated path between 13:38:00 UT and 13:39:30 UT and observers there are encouraged to monitor this event. The path's closest approach to Perth will occur at 13:42:30 UT.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: February 7, 2001 @ 13:40 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 10.31
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.6
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.7
• Path description: See above.
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_0245

• Approximate width [km]: 50
• Map: See below
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 0143-01823-1
• Constellation: Orion
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 6h 10m 55.210s; +7^o 17' 53.31"
• Position source: Tycho-2
• V mag [mag]: 10.31
• B-V [mag]: +1.01
• Remarks:
• The target star is in central-western Orion. It lies 3.9 degrees east of alpha Orionis (Betelgeuse) and 30 minutes east-south east of the magnitude 6.6 star SAO 113512. There is a magnitude 10.2 star (TYC 0143 00173) only 2.3 minutes to the north-west of the target star. In the paper versions of Goffin's predictions, this star can be seen on the inner edge of the circle to the upper right of the target star.

• Number, name: (737) Arequipa
• Approx. diameter [km]: 46.3
• Source of used astrometry: US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 15
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2000 10 16 - 2001 01 20

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2001 February 7, 13:48.4 UT
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 13.86
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 3.80
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.6
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.7
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 17.55
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 40, 99%
• Update computed by: Stephen Kerr (Win OCCULT 1.4).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.