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Updated: 2020 APR 06, 04:28 UT
Event Rank : 36
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jul 09 UT, the 21.6 km diameter asteroid (789) Lena will occult a 9.1 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a path across southern New South Wales and into central South Australia at very low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.92 mag to 15.02 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 552-66-1 by 789 Lena on 2020 Jul 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
156 1 49 -47 0 0 12 13 24.7 16 65 -60 156 31 6 155 32 0 158 15 51 153 36 4 3.24
155 47 1 -46 0 0 12 13 46.4 17 65 -60 156 15 57 155 17 34 157 59 28 153 23 3 3.24
155 27 32 -45 0 0 12 14 8.6 17 65 -61 155 56 13 154 58 19 157 38 51 153 4 48 3.23
155 3 27 -44 0 0 12 14 31.4 17 66 -61 155 32 0 154 34 24 157 14 4 152 41 24 3.22
154 34 52 -43 0 0 12 14 54.7 17 67 -62 155 3 21 154 5 51 156 45 11 152 12 54 3.22
154 1 44 -42 0 0 12 15 18.6 17 67 -62 154 30 17 153 32 39 156 12 13 151 39 18 3.21
153 23 59 -41 0 0 12 15 43.0 17 68 -62 153 52 42 152 54 43 155 35 7 151 0 27 3.20
152 41 30 -40 0 0 12 16 8.0 17 69 -63 153 10 30 152 11 55 154 53 47 150 16 10 3.20
151 54 3 -39 0 0 12 16 33.5 17 69 -63 152 23 29 151 24 0 154 8 4 149 26 6 3.19
151 1 20 -38 0 0 12 16 59.5 17 70 -63 151 31 22 150 30 39 153 17 45 148 29 47 3.19
150 2 55 -37 0 0 12 17 26.2 17 71 -62 150 33 43 149 31 22 152 22 32 147 26 31 3.18
148 58 10 -36 0 0 12 17 53.5 16 72 -62 149 30 1 148 25 30 151 22 0 146 15 19 3.18
147 46 16 -35 0 0 12 18 21.3 16 73 -62 148 19 28 147 12 5 150 15 35 144 54 41 3.19
146 25 57 -34 0 0 12 18 49.9 15 74 -61 147 0 58 145 49 45 149 2 32 143 22 20 3.19
144 55 24 -33 0 0 12 19 19.2 14 75 -60 145 32 55 144 16 24 147 41 45 141 34 23 3.21
143 11 44 -32 0 0 12 19 49.3 13 76 -59 143 52 49 142 28 38 146 11 41 139 23 20 3.24
141 9 51 -31 0 0 12 20 20.5 12 77 -58 141 56 27 140 20 8 144 29 57 136 30 30 3.30
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
140 0 0 -30 30 20 12 20 36.4 11 78 -57 -30 9 27 -30 51 39 -28 55 23 -32 15 28 3.23
139 0 0 -30 7 25 12 20 49.0 10 79 -56 -29 46 52 -30 28 24 -28 33 51 -31 50 40 3.23
138 0 0 -29 46 49 12 21 0.6 9 79 -55 -29 26 33 -30 7 30 -28 14 26 -31 28 29 3.25
137 0 0 -29 28 28 12 21 11.2 9 80 -54 -29 8 25 -29 48 54 -27 57 4 -31 8 47 3.27
136 0 0 -29 12 18 12 21 20.8 8 80 -53 -28 52 27 -29 32 31 -27 41 44 -30 51 31 3.29
135 0 0 -28 58 17 12 21 29.5 7 81 -53 -28 38 35 -29 18 21 -27 28 23 -30 36 38 3.32
134 0 0 -28 46 23 12 21 37.2 6 81 -52 -28 26 49 -29 6 19 -27 17 0 -30 24 3 3.35
133 0 0 -28 36 36 12 21 43.9 5 82 -51 -28 17 8 -28 56 27 .. .. .. -30 13 47 3.39
132 0 0 -28 28 55 12 21 49.7 5 82 -50 -28 9 30 -28 48 42 .. .. .. -30 5 47 3.45
131 0 0 -28 23 19 12 21 54.5 4 83 -49 -28 3 55 -28 43 5 .. .. .. -30 0 3 3.52
130 0 0 -28 19 50 12 21 58.4 3 83 -48 -28 0 25 -28 39 36 .. .. .. -29 56 35 3.64
129 0 0 -28 18 26 12 22 1.3 2 84 -47 -27 58 59 -28 38 15 .. .. .. -29 55 25 3.84
128 0 0 -28 19 11 12 22 3.1 1 84 -47 -27 59 40 -28 39 4 .. .. .. -29 56 34 4.34
127 0 0 -28 22 6 12 22 4.0 0 85 -46 -28 2 28 -28 42 6 .. .. .. -30 0 4 7.58
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 6.0
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